Name: subsidence_prediction_2025

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Description: Subsidence is a primary component of land loss in southern Louisiana and a major source of uncertainty affecting the planning and implementation of coastal restoration and protection projects. It is of particular importance for the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority to understand the rates at which the coastal landscape is subsiding to ensure proper development and implementation of its coastal master plan.The State of Louisiana has funded several studies and data collection efforts to better quantify rates of land subsidence. These efforts typically have focused on data collection and specific measurement techniques or understanding specific geologic processes. Few studies have attempted to predict subsidence rates on a coastal scale using geostatistical techniques, rather, previous maps of subsidence rates have focused on delineating zones of plausible ranges based on expert opinion of geologic phenomenon and features.Though potentially useful in some cases, ranges of subsidence rates are insufficient for use in models or planning tools that require a single quantified rate of subsidence for a specific local. This layer represents the results of a study that developed a Universal Kriging interpolation model and its application to develop a subsidence prediction surface and associated uncertainty within the Louisiana coast. Model and interpolation errors are quantified and reported to help inform the potential uncertainty related to interpolation. The layer was fit to a 30 m grid used by the CPRA Master Plan team, and is further discussed in CPRA, 2025.

Copyright Text: Suggested Citation: Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA), 2025. CPRA Predictive Subsidence Surface 2025, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana (CPRA), Baton Rouge, LA Primary Author: Matthew Vincent

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